The effects of tertiary and quaternary infections on the epidemiology of dengue

This is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.The epidemiology of dengue is characterised by irregular epidemic outbreaks and desynchronised dynamics of its four co-circulating virus serotypes. Whilst infection by one serotype appears to convey life-long protection to homologous infection, it is believed to be a risk factor for severe disease manifestations upon secondary, heterologous infection due to the phenomenon of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Subsequent clinical infections are rarely reported and, since the majority of dengue infections are generally asymptomatic, it is not clear if and to what degree tertiary or quaternary infections contribute to dengue epidemiology. Here we investigate the effect of third and subsequent infections on the transmission dynamics of dengue and show that although the qualitative patterns are largely equivalent, the system more readily exhibits the desynchronised serotype oscillations and multi-annual epidemic outbreaks upon their inclusion. More importantly, permitting third and fourth infections significantly increases the force of infection without resorting to high basic reproductive numbers. Realistic age-prevalent patterns and seroconversion rates are therefore easier reconciled with a low value of dengue's transmission potential if allowing for more than two infections; this should have important consequences for dengue control and intervention measures.This work was funded by the BBSRC (PSW) and the Royal Society (MR). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Wireless internet architecture and testbed for wineglass

One of the most challenging issues in the area of mobile communication is the deployment of IPbased wireless multimedia networks in public and business environments. The public branch may involve public mobile networks, like UMTS as 3G system, while the business branch introduces local radio access networks by means of W-LANs. Conventional mobile networks realise mobile specific functionality, e.g. mobility management or authentication and accounting, by implementing appropriate mechanisms in specific switching nodes (e.g. SGSN in GPRS). In order to exploit the full potential of IP networking solutions a replacement of these mechanisms by IP-based solutions might be appropriate. In addition current and innovative future services in mobile environments require at least soft-guaranteed, differentiated QoS. Therefore the WINE GLASS project investigates and implements enhanced IP-based techniques supporting mobility and QoS in a wireless Internet architecture. As a means to verify the applicability of the implemented solutions, location-aware services deploying both IP-mobility and QoS mechanisms will be implemented and demonstratedPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The effects of symmetry on the dynamics of antigenic variation

In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in malaria, we show how many of the observed dynamical regimes can be explained in terms of the symmetry of interactions between different antigenic variants. The results of this analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of immune escape of other parasites, as well as for the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures; J. Math. Biol. (2012), Online Firs

Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections

In mathematical studies of the dynamics of multi-strain diseases caused by antigenically diverse pathogens, there is a substantial interest in analytical insights. Using the example of a generic model of multi-strain diseases with cross-immunity between strains, we show that a significant understanding of the stability of steady states and possible dynamical behaviours can be achieved when the symmetry of interactions between strains is taken into account. Techniques of equivariant bifurcation theory allow one to identify the type of possible symmetry-breaking Hopf bifurcation, as well as to classify different periodic solutions in terms of their spatial and temporal symmetries. The approach is also illustrated on other models of multi-strain diseases, where the same methodology provides a systematic understanding of bifurcation scenarios and periodic behaviours. The results of the analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of a large class of models of multi-strain diseases

Understanding Sino-African Relations: Neocolonialism or a New Era?

What motivates increased relations between China and African countries? While Chinese interests in natural resources throughout Africa is well known, less attention is given to whether these interests are short-term or long-term in nature. We challenge the assumption of Chinese neocolonialism without portraying growing relations as void of problems for African development. Instead of viewing these relations from one of two polarized positions, we suggest that reality is somewhere in the middle, with the potential for deeper mutually beneficial relationships coexisting with some level of exploitation

Harold M. Frost T J Musculoskel Neuron Interact 2001; 2(2):117-119 William F. Neuman Awardee 2001

Tribute to Harold M. Frost, honorary president of ISMNI, who received the William F. Neuman Award from the American Society of Bone and Mineral Research October 2001

The IT-CMF: A Practical Application of Design Science

The IT-Capability Maturity Model [IT-CMF] is a high-level process capability maturity framework for managing the IT function within an organization. The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the IT-CMF as a “ method meta-model” for IT management, emphasizing the novel approach to addressing the application of design processes and design artifacts by means of a very structured use of engaged scholarship and open innovation techniques to the ongoing challenge of managing organization’s IT capability

A Statistically Rigorous Method for Determining Antigenic Switching Networks

Many vector-borne pathogens rely on antigenic variation to prolong infections and increase their likelihood of onward transmission. This immune evasion strategy often involves mutually exclusive switching between members of gene families that encode functionally similar but antigenically different variants during the course of a single infection. Studies of different pathogens have suggested that switching between variant genes is non-random and that genes have intrinsic probabilities of being activated or silenced. These factors could create a hierarchy of gene expression with important implications for both infection dynamics and the acquisition of protective immunity. Inferring complete switching networks from gene transcription data is problematic, however, because of the high dimensionality of the system and uncertainty in the data. Here we present a statistically rigorous method for analysing temporal gene transcription data to reconstruct an underlying switching network. Using artificially generated transcription profiles together with in vitro var gene transcript data from two Plasmodium falciparum laboratory strains, we show that instead of relying on data from long-term parasite cultures, accuracy can be greatly improved by using transcription time courses of several parasite populations from the same isolate, each starting with different variant distributions. The method further provides explicit indications about the reliability of the resulting networks and can thus be used to test competing hypotheses with regards to the underlying switching pathways. Our results demonstrate that antigenic switch pathways can be determined reliably from short gene transcription profiles assessing multiple time points, even when subject to moderate levels of experimental error. This should yield important new information about switching patterns in antigenically variable organisms and might help to shed light on the molecular basis of antigenic variation

Copper Doping of ZnO Crystals by Transmutation of \u3csup\u3e64\u3c/sup\u3eZn to \u3csup\u3e65\u3c/sup\u3eCu: An Electron Paramagnetic Resonance and Gamma Spectroscopy Study

Transmutation of 64Zn to 65Cu has been observed in a ZnO crystal irradiated with neutrons. The crystal was characterized with electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) before and after the irradiation and with gamma spectroscopy after the irradiation. Major features in the gamma spectrum of the neutron-irradiated crystal included the primary 1115.5 keV gamma ray from the 65Zn decay and the positron annihilation peak at 511 keV. Their presence confirmed the successful transmutation of 64Zn nuclei to 65Cu. Additional direct evidence for transmutation was obtained from the EPR of Cu2+ ions (where 63Cu and 65Cu hyperfine lines are easily resolved). A spectrum from isolated Cu2+ (3d9) ions acquired after the neutron irradiation showed only hyperfine lines from 65Cu nuclei. The absence of 63Cu lines in this Cu2+ spectrum left no doubt that the observed 65Cu signals were due to transmuted 65Cu nuclei created as a result of the neutron irradiation. Small concentrations of copper, in the form of Cu+-H complexes, were inadvertently present in our as-grown ZnO crystal. These Cu+-H complexes are not affected by the neutron irradiation, but they dissociate when a crystal is heated to 900 °C. This behavior allowed EPR to distinguish between the copper initially in the crystal and the copper subsequently produced by the neutron irradiation. In addition to transmutation, a second major effect of the neutron irradiation was the formation of zinc and oxygen vacancies by displacement. These vacancies were observed with EPR